Thursday, July 13, 2006

Storm clouds gathering

Israel authorizes 'severe' response to abductions (CNN)

G6 agree to send Iran back to the UN Security Council (from Xinhua)
Iran's growing ties with Iraq
(USA Today)

The Middle-East is rapidly destabilizing and after reading this article from the Washington Post
, it looks like someone is trying to find a "smoking gun" to put Iran into the stone age.

Solutions?
1. Continue dealing with the issues individually
2.
Shock and awe over Tehran
3. The G6 invite Iran to the table and treat them like a regional power

Suggestions.....

27 comments:

Thomas said...

How about calling it outright "war"? Seems as if Olmert, the first Israeli PM without a military background, has been giving in to the falcons in the army.

This is the end of the Gaza/Westbank withdrawal plan. Less than a year after Israel left Gaza, they are back in with the army.

I cannot understand what goes on in the heads of Hamas leaders ... beyond my comprehension. By rejecting to at least recognise the rightful interests of Israel they seem to have made a mistake at least as grave as Arafat's in 2000 when he rejected the most far-reaching power-sharing proposal ever agreed to by the Israelis.

Emir said...

WAR ?
Do we call stones vs Bullets a war ?

And, somebody can give some stats about the number of palestinians in the israeli jails (already since couple of years) without any clear idea how are they treated or even if they're still alive ? But when it's about a ONE israeli catched by the palestinians, we already see the reaction ! And god knows how many civilians will STILL die because of that.

Isn't that fucking rediculus ?
Oh no sorry, it's a War...

Dody G. said...

Emir,

Ever heard about the concept "no one left behind?"

The greatest militaries simply do not left their soldiers behind.

Emir said...

Dody, im not talking about that, of course they won't leave anyone behind!
Im just pointing on the WAY they do it, and on the WAY they treat the other part, who is just trying to do THE SAME : NOT TO LEAVE ANYONE BEHIND, and they got thousands of those ONE behind !

Pierre said...

I started the post because i felt that things between Israel and the Hezbollah and Hamas were taking a turn for the worse. It now seems as if the whole region is about 1 week away from exploding - going by the WP article. Something is happening there and the early rumblings are not positive.

Can anyone from the region tell us what local vernacular press are saying about the situation?

World War I began with the assasination of the Archduke Ferdinand. Will the fate of three Israeli soldiers decide the future of the Middle east?

Pierre said...

sorry bout the screwed up HTML on the main post - i'm using a computer with a Chinese OS so I have no idea how to format....

Dody G. said...

Emir,

There is no nice way to do about this.

It didn't work way back in the Iranian hostage crisis nor the kidnapping fest we see in Iraq right now.

Thomas said...

sorry, but it's not stones vs. bullets. it's qassam rockets and suicide bombs against tanks and artillery.

i am fed up with this david v. goliath attitude. there is nothing nice or "just" about things both sides are doing to each other.

Dody G. said...

the stones and bullets were true in the first intifada - after that, it was all romance.

Emir said...

You're right, there isn't a nice way of doing that

It's just a reflexion about How far with they get with this Violence and arrogance ???

The question is : untill when we have to wait, in order to see somebody pushing them back ?
shall we wait untill they kill every single palestinian and occupy every single corner in Palestine ?

If this kind of "small" violence from hizbollah and others wont solve the problem, and the political way (negociations and bullshit) won't
do it neither, so what will be the solution ???

Emir said...

Thomas : that's a nice joke

15 rockets in Quassam's depot Vs 15000 in the other side :
yeah : fair enough !

And if you ask yourself a good question : why these suicide bombers are fighting with the most valuable thing they have ( their life) if they had weapons to fight the ennemy ?

Dody G. said...

Emir,

Hezbollah is not some rag tags organizations like oh the romantic "che guevara" rebels. They are in power, control territories in Lebanon and wage war against a state. Nor they are poor (the support from both Syria and Iran were well established);

Hezbollah has everything that a state has without the responsibilities.

And here's the real problem. If a non state actor like Hezbollah go cross border and attack a country, is it Lebanon's fault?

Bleh, suicide bombers - since when Egyptian families that got blown up to pieces in Dahab become "the enemy".

I despise what's going on right now but I have little sympathy for this type of nostalgia.

Thomas said...

I am not saying that military power is evenly distributed. All I say is that both sides are using unethical means.

I feel sorry for those who think (or have been made thinking) they need to blow themselves up. There's no real need for such dramatic and sad events. Why? For the answer, I point to Dody's last comment.

Emir said...

Dody,

Im not defending all the suicide bombers, remember also what happened in Jordan (the weddings) and so many other exemples : im pointing to the reason why all this started.

Extremism is on both sides, that's for sure ! and i will never tolerate killing civilians !

Hezbollah is the only " Part" that was able to kick out the Israelis from the south of Lebanon. Because they worked hard on it, and they had a goal : Take back their territory and Freedom of their country.

What i dont understand is when people say : But look, they got the support of Syria, of Iran..... and they have weapons and Rockets....WTF ??????????
Do u want them to be fighting with stones their entire life, so they can die one after one ?

Why did the US support Bin Laden and gave him weapons against the Soviet ? And then came back to say that they are a group of armed terrorists ? of course, cause now they are fighting against the US.

Why did the same thing happened with Sadam Husein, getting logistic and Material support from the US against IRAN, and then being accused that they hold Forbidden and nuclear weapons ???

Shall i give more exemples ?

I think it's enough...

Thomas said...

Realpolitik.

Nobody likes it, but it's the only way to move things forward. Hamas seems to refuse this notion, whereas I have to admit that I've seen this idea taking hold in Israel in recent years.

Dody G. said...

Actually the CIA and Saudi Arabia supported the Mujaheddin to kick Soviet Union out of Afghanistan, not particularly Bin Laden.

For the definitive account on this, read "Charles Wilson's War".

Bin Laden is definitely a terrorist. His deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, practiced his craft bombing the shit out of Egypt in the 90's. If you ask any Egyptian here, they will recall the harrowing days where bombings etc were frequents.

Take a look Iraq right now for reference - I mean it is pretty perverted to 'fight against the US' by bombing Masjids while people are in their Friday prayers.

Well, Iraq did try to develop nuclear weapon. Check out the UN report in 1995 after Saddam's brother in law escaped to Jordan and divulged the details of Iraq secret nuclear weapon program. Google it up.

Iraq did buy weapons from the US but US was actually the smallest supplier of Iraq's weapon. The main supplier for Iraq comes from Europe. You can google that list as well.

Look, all these explanation risks me being painted as a US propaganda puppet, but I think it is naive to see the various factions and players in the Middle East through a rose colored glasses. The PLO and Fatah were corrupt to the core, Hamas couldn't govern, Syria occupied Lebanon for more than 20 years, Israel loves the opportunities to kill more of their enemies, Palestinians never manage to get their shit sorted out, the Iranian revolution was a fucking disaster, the strong man in Iraq gassed and kill his own people, the freedom fighters against the occupier USA in Iraq blow and kill their own brothers and sisters.

Whatever noble causes that started all of these have been corrupted to the core - these factions love their conflicts.

Anyway, as you can see I'm fuckin' jaded about these whole Middle East issues.

Thomas said...

For me, the "you did evil in the past, so shut up" approach is a terrible non-starter.

If you buy into this thinking and think it to the end, then Israelis would have all the rights to bomb Arabs into stone-age, because some more than 2000 years ago the ancestors of the Arabs took the entire Jewish people for hostage and slavery in Egypt.

(Of course, for this you also have to believe in Jewish/Christian religion, which points to another issue arising from the "my holy land and only mine, never your's" attitude.)

Emir said...

Heh, you said it Thomas : You have to believe in that religion and that book
!
For us, we believe in God, his prophet, and his Holy Book.
And History is not the same in all the books.
But still, WE DONT WANT TO BURN anybody, we just want them to get the fuck outa there, cause it's not their Land.

What if Japan for exemple come to your Town and bomb it, destroy everything and kill everybody, just because they figure out, it use to be a japaneese Land or territory ?
Will you invite them for diner, thank them for coming, and then be so kind to leave the place without any trouble ???

This shit started in 1947 when the BRITISH decided that the jewish should go there(they had some other options, but that one was the best located)!!

And then, we end up calling the people that fight in their own country, against the occupation : Terrorists ! How nice is that !
Israel is a Terrorist country, just like Al Qaida is a Terrorist Group.

But the difference is that Israel got a good support from the strongest country in the world, while the other one got it as an enemy !

It would be nice to see the US caring about Darfour, or the crisis in Mauritania where some Melichia kicked out the president and took over the country.....But who cares? they dont have petrol, they are not close to Israel, why the hell should the US care about that?

Pierre said...

What is well established is that most of these factions have virtually no governing capabilities or tactics beyond the use of 'fear'.

Emir - from what I understand you don't support the way they they're doing things - but you think that they have just cause.

From my distant understanding of the situation - Hamas' only objective seems to me to be the destruction of Israel. They offer no positive solution to the Palestenians for what will follow.

So let's completely remove Israel from the equation (they leave/ they are wiped out) - what happens to Palestine with Hamas in power right now?

Do you believe:
a. They are capable of delivering good governance?
b. The rest of the world will ever support the re-building of Palestine with a branded terrorist organization in power?

Emir said...

It won't be easy, and it'll take longtime to have a democratic envirnment !

But let them manage their shit by themselves.
America occupied IRAQ to liberate the people andto give them a shot of democracy and to save their Lives from Saddam, And look at the result....A massive destruction in the whole country, and adozen of dead bodysin the streets every day.

Palestine's problem is the land, not the gouvernment. Political agreements and negociations, sinc 58 years did never manage to sort the shit out !!! why ? cause isrel never applied any of the decision on which they agreed.
I work in a pharmaceutical company, and i see that we bearly have sales in Palestine eventhough the orders exists, why ? because there's a credit block from Israel, so Palestinians can't access their money and even they money collected from other countries for them : TO BUY MEDECINES !! While Israel can order and pick up whenever they feel like (that;s how it's supposed to be everywhere)

So, dont telle me bullshit about democracy and local terrorist group, Hamas, Quassam, whatever, People left their houses and towns since 1948, they live in the street, and u want them to have democracy while they are hungry, scared, tortured, and IGNORANTS cause they can't go to school !!!!!

Pierre said...

There's a deliberate reason i chose the word governance over democracy. Coming from a developing country, I am well aware of the fact that the most basic need for a human being is survival and not the need to be heard.

My question stands unanswered: Can the Hamas led government deliver anything to the Palestenians besides a message of hate and destruction?

The problem with terrorist organizations is that they're only concern is 'defeating the enemy'. Their inability to think long-term & beyond destruction and fear is the reason they dont get much table-room at negotiations.

Hamas would be taken much more seriously if they are able to put out a long-term plan to re-build Palestine AND make peace with Israel.

Let's face it - even IF the rest of the world wants it, there is NO WAY the U.S. will let Israel disappear from the Middle-East. Yesterday's veto vote at the U.N. continues to confirm its committment to making sure Israel remains strong.

Pierre said...

Don't get me wrong - more than anything else, i just want to see everyone living within their own borders in peace. No suicide bombers and rocket attacks and no bulldozers and tanks.

Having said that, the Hamas government in Palestine is more detrimental to the needs of Palestenians than good. Short of renouncing terrorism and proposing that long term plan for development and peace nothing that they do will be good enough.

Thomas said...

Israel's existence in this region is rightful for historic, cultural and religious reasons. The Palestinian state's existence in this region is rightful, as well.

There will be no peace and no justice in this region unless both sides accept this truth.

Emir said...

This kind of groups will never think further ahead because they are not political groups, they were made just for one goal : liberate the country, and that's the only goal they have.
They ended up gouverning Palestine because of luck of support and luck of right environement to see some political groups or organisations in the scene.
Palestinians dont need a strong gouvernement at this moment : they need a free land, where they can decide what to do and what not to do !
they need to be able to LIVE with the minimum requirements in 2006's life : Have a house, potable water, electricity, be able to go to school,
to have a job and to feel SAFE at home ! Not to wake up in the morning with Planes bombing the town and Bulldozers destroying the houses,
why ? because some " Terrorists" dare to kidnapp a friendly soldier who came to give cake and sweets to the children in town !

What Israel is doing is not terrorism, killing those entire families in Beiruth and most of them are children, this is not terrorism
bombing the airports and closing the borders, is not terrorism
Again back to my work, all the supplies of medecines were returned to switzerland from Amsterdam today because the airplanes couldnt land in the airport
and we have to find a way to send these medecines to people that need it !

And then you say Isreal has the right to exist there because of cultural and religious and i dont know what else reasons !
what are those cultural and religious reasons ? do they also go back to 2000 years ago ?????

couple of hundred years ago, the whole north africa, spain, south france and italy use to belong to Carthage (an old tunisian city), shall we go and try to
take it back ? because obviously, it use to belong to us, PER HISTORY ?????

Emir said...

At the end, i agree with both of you :
-that the US will never stop supporting Israel.
-The palestinian will never give up fighting for their Freedom.


WELCOME TO HELL !

Anonymous said...

why are we so set on the notion that syria and iran support hezbollah. On a moral level, yes, naturally they would and yes that does establishe "ties". But where is the bread coming from? Who's supplying the arsenal?


In the business of war, one group of individuals that are never heard of, that have the power to tip the balance, instigate, act as the invisible hand...the unofficial contractor: arms dealers.

Which explains why UN obervations have never picked up on any cargo, financial transactions coming from Iran or from Syria into Lebanon...that's because it doesn't come from them!

Pierre said...

Arms dealers fuel a need that exists in the market. But they do not always act independently.

I know it's from a movie - albeit one that was based on several true stories... Lord of War. The end of the movie describes quite accurately how governments use the services of these arms dealers to push in arms and weapons to countries they can't be caught openly dealing with.

Syria and Iran might not be handing over supplies directly to Hezbollah, but by directing these arms dealers and allowing them the use of their land (especially Syria) to transport goods into Lebanon, they've clearly established physical support for the fighters.